By Robert Noland and Lewis Fulton

This article originally appeared on the New Jersey State Policy Lab website.

In the mid-2000’s there was concern over “peak oil” and rising oil prices. In response to this, the International Energy Agency (IEA) commissioned an analysis of how to Save Oil in A Hurry (IEA, 2005). We worked together on this report and also published a summary in Energy Policy (Noland et. al, 2006) and in 2018 the IEA published an update (IEA, 2018). This work and the policy recommendations are highly relevant today as the world is experiencing the most severe oil supply disruption in modern history, triggered by the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran and the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows. The impact is far greater than the cut off of Russian oil due to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (Noland & Fulton, 2022). The current supply shock is a real emergency, and reducing oil consumption quickly is one way to mitigate the impacts.

In March 2026, the International Energy Agency reported that oil and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed “to a trickle,” and global supply is projected to plunge by 8 million barrels per day (IEA, 2026a). Governments worldwide are now activating emergency fuel‑saving strategies, many of which align directly with the policies we evaluated: telecommuting mandates, compressed work weeks, expanded carpooling, stringent speed‑limit enforcement, and even driving bans. In Asia, for example, governments are adopting four‑day work weeks, restricting travel, and urging citizens to avoid panic‑buying as jet‑fuel shortages loom (IEA, 2026b, Wee et al., 2026; Stevenson et al., 2026). Strategic reserves are also being released to mitigate shortages and price spikes, but this will be short-lived if the crisis continues (IEA, 2026c).

One of our key recommendations was to increase the flexibility of choices that travelers face. In our original analysis, we estimated that telecommuting, flexible work schedules, public transport incentives, carpooling, and speed limit reductions could deliver modest but meaningful reductions in fuel consumption (typically 1–6%). Driving bans, e.g. based on odd/even license plates could save up to 20% or more, though with higher political and social costs. Eco-driving, e.g. minimizing hard accelerations can also be beneficial. Of course, increases in the price of gasoline will also spur reductions in consumption, but the goal of these policies is to mitigate the price spikes.

We also note that, since our publication, electric vehicles have become a common sight in many countries around the world, notably Europe and China, as well as in the U.S., most notably California. These have a direct impact on oil consumption but don’t automatically provide a lever to quickly decrease oil demand further during an emergency. Those who are in multi-car households with at least one EV can choose to drive their EV more, instead of a gasoline vehicle.  Plug in hybrids, now just a modest share of the EV market, provide the ability to switch between gasoline and electricity in the same vehicle. If more of these vehicles were encouraged, the substitutability of electricity for gasoline could increase significantly, though this is not a short-term policy, it does increase resilience to supply shocks in the future. The same goes for trucks – there are very few PHETs (plug-in hybrid electric trucks), but if fleets drove these, their ability to switch fuels would be much greater. Trucking is of particular concern as diesel prices have spiked. Previous work conducted on heavy-goods vehicles found very few options for emergency reductions in consumption (Noland & Wadud, 2009). Diesel shortages are especially hitting many Southeast Asian counties with limited reserves (Wee et al., 2026). Our research also did not examine shortages of jet fuel, which are also affecting some countries (Stevenson et al., 2026).

The other major change since our report was written is the increased level of telecommuting or working at home. The COVID pandemic demonstrated that this was feasible due to new technology (i.e., Zoom). We probably underestimated the number of jobs that could quickly shift to working at home; we estimated only a 3.7% reduction in fuel savings, and this could likely be much higher today. Again, in southeast Asia policies are being implemented to mandate working at home (Wee et al., 2026).

While much policy has focused on reducing vehicle use and fuel consumption to mitigate the impacts of climate change, the original rationale for many demand management policies harken back to the supply crises of the 1970s. The important lesson is the ability to cushion supply shocks depends less on emergency improvisation and more on the long‑term design of resilient, flexible, and multimodal transportation systems.

References:

IEA (2005). Saving Oil in a Hurry, https://www.iea.org/reports/saving-oil-in-a-hurry-2005

IEA (2018). Saving Oil in a Hurry, https://www.iea.org/reports/saving-oil-in-a-hurry

IEA (2026a). Oil Market Report – March 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026.

IEA (2026b). New IEA report highlights options to ease oil price pressures on consumers in response to Middle East supply disruptions, News, 20 March 2026. https://www.iea.org/news/new-iea-report-highlights-options-to-ease-oil-price-pressures-on-consumers-in-response-to-middle-east-supply-disruptions

IEA (2026c). IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict, https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict

Noland, R. B., Cowart, W. A., & Fulton, L. M. (2006). Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency. Energy Policy, 34(17), 2994-3005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.05.013

Noland, R. & Fulton, L. (2022). Now is the Time to Save Oil in a Hurry, New Jersey State Policy Lab, https://policylab.rutgers.edu/publication/now-is-the-time-to-save-oil-in-a-hurry/

Noland, R. B., & Wadud, Z. (2009). Review of oil demand restraint policies for heavy-goods vehicles. Energy Sources, Part B, 4(1), 84-99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15567240701423985

Stevenson, A., Krolik, A., Ngo, T. and Kim V. (2026). Scramble for Jet Fuel Shows How Energy Shortages Are Rippling Across Asia, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/oil-jetfuel-asia.html

Wee, S-L., Gutierrez, J. Suhartono, M. Srigammuang, K. and Ngo, T. (2026). Reeling From the Iran War’s Oil Shock and ‘Running Out of Ideas’, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/world/asia/iran-war-oil-thailand-vietnam-philippines.html